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Prediction for CME (2024-01-20T09:24:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-01-20T09:24Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/28649/-1
CME Note: Partial halo CME seen to the south/southeast in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2. Source is a filament eruption on the Earth-facing disk stretching from S15E00 to S15E35, with liftoff starting around 2024-01-20T08:27Z. This CME overlaps with another filament eruption on the NE limb which resulted in CME:2024-01-20T09:36Z. | [PRELIMINARY] CME Arrival Note: potential combined arrival of this CME and the CME seen at 2024-01-21T00:36Z beginning around 16:00Z with B_total increase to ~14 nT. This arrival appears to be followed by a solar sector boundary crossing starting around 2024-01-23T19:30Z.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-01-22T16:01Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-01-22T08:00Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 5.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)
Prediction Method Note:

Please enter the following information for your prediction:
SWPC ENLIL settings: 
ENLIL version: 2.9e
Resolution: medium
Ambient settings: a8b1
Ejecta settings: d4t1x1
WSA version: 2.2
GONG: mrbqs

CME input parameters
Time at 21.5Rs boundary:
Radial velocity (km/s):
Longitude (deg):
Latitude (deg):
Half-angular width (deg):

Notes:

Product: Forecast Discussion
Issued: 2024 Jan 21 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...

...A complex filament eruption centered near S15E22 began at around 20/0848
UTC, as seen in SDO 304 imagery. The subsequent CME, first visible in
LASCO C2 imagery at 20/0912 UTC, appeared to have three fronts; to the
east, southeast, and south-southwest. Early analysis suggests a portion
of this CME will arrive late in the UTC day on 22 Jan. Further analysis
is in progress.


Product: Forecast Discussion
Issued: 2024 Jan 21 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
...A complex filament eruption centered near S15E22 began at around 20/0848
UTC, as seen in SDO 304 imagery. The subsequent CME, first visible in
LASCO C2 imagery at 20/0912 UTC, appeared to have three fronts; to the
east, southeast, and south-southwest. Analysis and modeling of the event
suggested CME passage at Earth over 22-23 Jan.

Product: Forecast Discussion
Issued: 2024 Jan 22 0030 UTC

.Forecast...
Periods of G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storms are likely late on
22 Jan and early on 23 Jan due to the anticipated passage of a CME from
20 Jan.

Lead Time: 46.75 hour(s)
Difference: 8.02 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Mattie Anastopulos (M2M Office) on 2024-01-20T17:16Z

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